15/01: Phony War

Legendary Brazilian football coach Mario Zagallo once said coaching Brazil was near impossible because every Brazilian thinks he or she knows the national football team better than he does.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi might as well share the same view with Zagallo about the timing of the country’s next general election. It seems like everyone knows just when the 12th general election is going to be held.

There is no doubt the country is in the grip of an election fever. Popular bloggers like Raja Petra (Malaysia Today) have been writing articles speculating on the election date(s) for months and even claimed a feng shui master has gave Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi several auspicious dates to hold the election. Recently, the mainstream newspaper jumped onto the bandwagon. The general election is coming, screamed The Star a few days ago. Quoting political analysts, the newspaper claimed it could be held “in a matter of weeks.”

The Star even ventures a time frame for the election to be held, March 7 to 16, to coincide with the school holidays. To give its prediction a hint of credibility, it quoted a senior minister as saying BN had completed dry runs in five states. Why the senior minister was not named is anybody’s guess because I can’t find anything controversial about his statements. (Perhaps the senior minister is fictitious, made up by the writer in a moment of inspiration.) I do however, find his next statement funny. Funny because the senior minister was quoted as saying “If we wait any longer, fatigue will set in.”

Come on. The BN has just conducted dry runs in five states and he/she is worried about fatigue settling in among party workers? Maybe the senior minister (writer) underestimated the size of BN’s war chest. Maybe what the senior minister, if he or she really exist, actually meant was “if we wait any longer, we will have to spend more money campaigning (and less for ourselves).” It certainly makes more sense.

What about the opposition? Senior opposition leader Lim Kit Siang has made several predictions about the date of the next general elections. If he truly believes them, then he would have mobilised DAP’s election machinery in preparation a few months ago? Ditto PAS and PKR. But have they? And if the opposition parties have started campaigning earlier than BN component parties, wouldn’t their supporters be even more fatigued now compared with BN component party workers?

Okay, I hear what you say. I can’t compare BN party workers and opposition party workers right? Opposition party workers are more committed to their cause compared with BN party workers right? You are probably right but party workers, no matter how committed they are, can’t be kept on tenterhooks for too long less they become frustrated.

I believe the election won’t be held until the later part of the year. I believe BN and opposition leaders are currently waging a phony war, the prelude to the real war – the general election. What we are witnessing now is a war of nerves aims at catching your opponent s off guard.

There are good reasons why BN and opposition leaders are engaging in a psych war. For BN, it means keeping the opposition on its toes. Badawi and his advisors know the opposition parties would not be able to match BN financial resources. Opposition parties could not sustain a long drawn election campaign. By fanning speculations of an impending election, he hopes slowly and steadily to drain PAS, DAP and PKR of its strength. When he sees the opposition parties are exhausted, he moves in for the kill by calling for the shortest election possible (don’t be surprised if the 12th general election turns out to be the shortest election held ever). He unleashes the full might of the BN on the weakened opposition in one swift and mighty blow and before you can shout “People Power,” or “Takbir,” or “Re-for-ma-si,” the election is over and BN is back in power for another five years.

There are good reasons too why opposition parties agree to play along in the charade. I remember asking the astute and experienced Kelantan PAS election director Cikgu Wan Rahim Wan Abdullah (the current Kelantan state assembly Speaker) in 1998 why PAS did nothing to address the nervous anticipation of its supporters of a snap election following the sacking of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. He told me the rumours serve the purpose of keeping PAS supporters “battle ready.” “Otherwise they become complacent. As long as we did not start the rumours, let it be.”

I suspect there will be a few more attempts by BN to bluff the opposition parties and the opposition parties to call BN’s bluff over the next few months. Whether the war, the 12th general election will be held in the next few weeks or during the second part of the year, time will tell. But make no mistake; the war has begun, even if it is only a phony war.

ends

By NICK LEONG

(Jan 15, 2008)

15/01: Empty pockets on rich soil

Despite hard work and commitment by the government, hardcore poverty still exists in Sabah, which ironically is rich in natural resources. JASWINDER KAUR visits the northern part of the state and sits in on a multi-stakeholder roundtable dialogue on challenges and programmes for poverty alleviation

THERE was the baby, her wrinkled and dull skin blemished by signs of dryness brought on by malnutrition and epilepsy.

She reached out her tiny hand to clutch the striped towel her mother had placed her in as a group of strangers walked into their one-room home built using left-over wood, zinc and dried leaves.

Lanora John, who is just over a year old, threw a glance at her 20-year-old mother for assurance before turning again to view the five or so people who crammed into the house on stilts which leak when it rains. She did not cry.

“Anak saya sakit. Dia kena sawan. (My daughter is sick. She has epilepsy),” Lanora’s mother, Isrin Basitul, said in a soft voice.
Probably shy, and looking undernourished herself, Isrin refused to say much despite being prodded by a group of reporters. Instead, she looked towards her husband, 51-year-old subsistence farmer John Leesa.

“Sejak anak kami sakit, dia tidak bising dan menangis macam bayi lain (Ever since our daughter fell sick, she stopped crying aloud like other babies),” John said at the house which does not have electricity or water supply, much less proper sanitation.

The family uses firewood to cook when there is no money to refill the gas cylinder.

“We take her to the Likas hospital for children in Kota Kinabalu every two months to get treatment. It is very expensive for us to travel to the city but we are trying to do what we can to save our baby.

“We cannot afford powdered milk but sometimes I buy Nestum when I have money to spare. We mix rice with water in a bottle and this is what Lanora drinks instead of milk.”

The couple’s older daughter, Eva Irene, is 5 years old, and John’s son from a previous marriage lives with them.

The 25-year-old son is mentally challenged and has become an added burden on the family’s already tiny income of about RM150 a month, which John earns clearing shrubs at a rubber estate close to his home in Kampung Simpang Empat, Pitas, in northern Sabah.

“I re-married after my first wife died. My eldest son is 27 and he has been working at a factory in Singapore for the last two years.

“He only managed to send RM50 to me once. It’s OK, I know he has many expenses there. My main concern now is to make sure that our baby will get well.”

John’s situation illustrates some of the problems the 21,568 hardcore poor families in Sabah face — living in remote areas, under-utilisation of resources, malnutrition, underage marriages, sickness and disabilities and lack of access to critical infrastructure such as electricity, clean water and clinics.

It also brings to light the fact that 41.61 per cent of children in Sabah are living in poverty, according to statistics released in the Malaysia. Measuring and Monitoring Poverty and Inequality report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in co-operation with the Economic Planning Unit.

Dr Richard Leete, UNDP resident representative for Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei, said the country had success stories regarding eradication of absolute poverty but that, somehow, a quarter of the population in Sabah was still living below the poverty line.

“It is rather shocking. About 42 per cent of Sabah’s children are currently living in poverty. This is shocking because that is where peninsula Malaysia was 50 years ago,” Leete said at a roundtable dialogue in Kota Kinabalu last week.

“Inequality in Sabah is getting worse. Despite great natural wealth, Sabah has not been able to translate this into reducing poverty.

“We need answers to questions such as what lies behind aggregate figures, how to tackle high fertility and child rates, women’s issues and how to create decent employment.”

The dialogue titled “Overcoming Challenges and Devising Sustainable Strategies and Programmes for Poverty Alleviation in Sabah” was jointly organised by the UNDP and the Centre for Poverty and Development Studies at Universiti Malaya.

Deputy Chief Minister Datuk Seri Joseph Pairin Kitingan, who is also minister in charge of rural development, acknowledged the daunting task facing the government in eradicating hardcore poverty by 2010.

Hardcore poverty in Sabah is at 6.9 per cent while poverty stands at 24.2 per cent based on 2004 figures.

“Scrutiny into the state’s poverty data would reveal that the majority of the poor and hardcore poor are subsistence farmers and traditional fishermen,” said Pairin.

“Both the federal and state governments have planned and implemented various programmes, with the Ninth Malaysia Plan and the state’s development agenda placing special emphasis on poverty eradication.”

He said the northern regions covering the districts of Kudat, Pitas, Kota Marudu and Kota Belud and central parts — including the districts of Beluran and Tongod — registered the highest number of hardcore poor households.

“These areas have undergone commendable economic development, especially in agriculture and basic infrastructure. However, pockets of poverty persist due to remoteness, inaccessibility and under-utilisation of resources.

“This is our challenge, trying to re-settle hardcore poor families in new areas through which we can introduce them to small programmes, such as making parang. There is a spectrum of target groups in different areas. We need everyone to be involved, we can’t do this alone.”

Pairin said his ministry was establishing 30 mini oil palm and rubber estates and setting up aquaculture programmes for the hardcore poor.

Universiti Malaya’s Centre for Poverty and Development Studies director, Associate Prof Dr Sulochana Nair, said not all strategies were “pro-poor".

She said what could work in one area, might not work in another place and that it was necessary to determine differences in poverty across regions.

“The second issue is that current programmes are top-down. Programmes should be based on needs and should be bottom-to-top. Look at what the poor need,” she said. “There is also a need to minimise leakages and to track expenditure.”

Nair said there was a need for better synergy between the different sectors, including non-governmental organisations and private bodies, adding that it was pertinent to link rural producers to the global supply chain while preserving traditional indigenous knowledge.

The dialogue also saw several prominent members of civil society and elected representatives giving their views, often opposed to one another, on why poverty still existed and what could be done to stop it. NST