15/01: Phony War

Legendary Brazilian football coach Mario Zagallo once said coaching Brazil was near impossible because every Brazilian thinks he or she knows the national football team better than he does.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi might as well share the same view with Zagallo about the timing of the country’s next general election. It seems like everyone knows just when the 12th general election is going to be held.

There is no doubt the country is in the grip of an election fever. Popular bloggers like Raja Petra (Malaysia Today) have been writing articles speculating on the election date(s) for months and even claimed a feng shui master has gave Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi several auspicious dates to hold the election. Recently, the mainstream newspaper jumped onto the bandwagon. The general election is coming, screamed The Star a few days ago. Quoting political analysts, the newspaper claimed it could be held “in a matter of weeks.”

The Star even ventures a time frame for the election to be held, March 7 to 16, to coincide with the school holidays. To give its prediction a hint of credibility, it quoted a senior minister as saying BN had completed dry runs in five states. Why the senior minister was not named is anybody’s guess because I can’t find anything controversial about his statements. (Perhaps the senior minister is fictitious, made up by the writer in a moment of inspiration.) I do however, find his next statement funny. Funny because the senior minister was quoted as saying “If we wait any longer, fatigue will set in.”

Come on. The BN has just conducted dry runs in five states and he/she is worried about fatigue settling in among party workers? Maybe the senior minister (writer) underestimated the size of BN’s war chest. Maybe what the senior minister, if he or she really exist, actually meant was “if we wait any longer, we will have to spend more money campaigning (and less for ourselves).” It certainly makes more sense.

What about the opposition? Senior opposition leader Lim Kit Siang has made several predictions about the date of the next general elections. If he truly believes them, then he would have mobilised DAP’s election machinery in preparation a few months ago? Ditto PAS and PKR. But have they? And if the opposition parties have started campaigning earlier than BN component parties, wouldn’t their supporters be even more fatigued now compared with BN component party workers?

Okay, I hear what you say. I can’t compare BN party workers and opposition party workers right? Opposition party workers are more committed to their cause compared with BN party workers right? You are probably right but party workers, no matter how committed they are, can’t be kept on tenterhooks for too long less they become frustrated.

I believe the election won’t be held until the later part of the year. I believe BN and opposition leaders are currently waging a phony war, the prelude to the real war – the general election. What we are witnessing now is a war of nerves aims at catching your opponent s off guard.

There are good reasons why BN and opposition leaders are engaging in a psych war. For BN, it means keeping the opposition on its toes. Badawi and his advisors know the opposition parties would not be able to match BN financial resources. Opposition parties could not sustain a long drawn election campaign. By fanning speculations of an impending election, he hopes slowly and steadily to drain PAS, DAP and PKR of its strength. When he sees the opposition parties are exhausted, he moves in for the kill by calling for the shortest election possible (don’t be surprised if the 12th general election turns out to be the shortest election held ever). He unleashes the full might of the BN on the weakened opposition in one swift and mighty blow and before you can shout “People Power,” or “Takbir,” or “Re-for-ma-si,” the election is over and BN is back in power for another five years.

There are good reasons too why opposition parties agree to play along in the charade. I remember asking the astute and experienced Kelantan PAS election director Cikgu Wan Rahim Wan Abdullah (the current Kelantan state assembly Speaker) in 1998 why PAS did nothing to address the nervous anticipation of its supporters of a snap election following the sacking of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. He told me the rumours serve the purpose of keeping PAS supporters “battle ready.” “Otherwise they become complacent. As long as we did not start the rumours, let it be.”

I suspect there will be a few more attempts by BN to bluff the opposition parties and the opposition parties to call BN’s bluff over the next few months. Whether the war, the 12th general election will be held in the next few weeks or during the second part of the year, time will tell. But make no mistake; the war has begun, even if it is only a phony war.

ends

By NICK LEONG

(Jan 15, 2008)