02/12: The hand that rocks the cradle can rock the world

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

More democracy and transparency

Datuk Zaid Ibrahim
30 August 2007, The Sun

It is impossible to project with certainty the political changes Malaysia will undergo in the next 50 years because outcomes of political developments have defied predictions. However, there are constants that will influence our political landscape.

The entrenched Malay political culture, especially dominant in Umno, is one of patronage where in exchange for unquestioned loyalty, the Malays gain economic benefits and protection from their leaders. However, the strength of the popular votes obtained by PAS in the last three general elections indicate that Malay support for PAS is still strong. This may be a reflection of yearnings amongst the Malays that whilst they value patronage, they also want Islamic values of justice, fairness and accountability.

The approach of the current PAS leadership to governance, focusing less on ideologies, suggests that they are adopting a middle ground for their Islamic constituents. Whilst PAS may want to shed some of its extreme Islamic image and rhetoric to gain headway into the middle ground of Malay politics, the same may not be true for Umno. If Umno were to lose support – which appears unlikely in the short term – their likely response may be to be more ethno-centric and to champion the “Islamic agenda”. In the future, it is not inconceivable that PAS may sound more like Umno and Umno like PAS.

Already, we have heard repeated statements from Umno’s upper echelons that Malaysia is an Islamic state. I hope that race and religion, which have destroyed and divided other countries, will spare our nation. The continued inequitable distribution of resources will cause a possible political backlash.

The economic condition of the East Malaysian states requires careful thought so that the fragile integration we now have will not deteriorate. Though poverty as a whole has been substantially reduced, the disparity within ethnic groups is worrying. Economic issues will gain importance in the years to come and solutions by periodical handouts will have to be replaced by carefully structured planning and better utilisation of resources.

The Chinese-based parties will, in future, take on a more assertive stance in their political play unlike the spectator and supplementary role they now assume. In exchange for government positions, the parties are more focused on business and community issues. This does not, however, mean they contribute little to nation-building. However, in the decades to come, the Chinese will be more politically active and assertive. Their strength in education, their ability to accumulate capital and know-how means they will have greater clout and involvement where decision-making is concerned.

Increasing foreign investments from China, Singapore and the influx of capital and investments from the Chinese diaspora will compel them to evolve into a political force of some reckoning. The Indian community, too, will be more vocal and their politics will be emboldened by the growing strength of the economies of Indians. Even the government has singled out the Indians as a target for more support in terms of increasing their equity in corporations. The emergence of India as an economic powerhouse, and their investments in this country, will have a significant trickle-down effect to the Indian community here. So, we will see a more vigorous political stance from Malaysian Indians.

The real test of the maturity and resilience of Malaysia’s ethnic political parties will be known during that time. Being such a dominant partner, Umno will need to adjust to and accommodate the growing assertiveness of the non-Malay political parties. The younger generation’s lack of interest in politics will change as more will register to vote. With the increasing reliance on the Internet for news and information, this generation of voters will be better informed and their participation in non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and political organisations will bring to the fore socio-economic issues that at present lie dormant. Women will also play a more dominant part in political organisations and NGOs.

The end result will be, the public will demand greater accountability. Consequently, a more vibrant civil society will emerge to monitor government. So, Malaysian political norms will change albeit at a slower pace than one would like to see. The prevailing political order will not be replaced easily but the nascent coalition of forces seeking changes to race-based politics will strengthen.

Cynics will assert that Malaysians will continue to choose “more of the same” but reforms in the institutions of government are inevitable. Market place demands, the dictates of the changing world political and economic order, and the need to be efficient and productive makes it necessary for the country to be more democratic and not less, and more reliant on transparent systems and less on discretion. The Barisan Nasional government is mindful and fully cognisant of these matters. Hence, it has to implement these changes or face the wrath of voters.

Datuk Zaid Ibrahim is a lawyer and a Barisan Nasional Member of Parliament. He describes himself as a real Malay and a true Malaysian.

Zaid Ibrahim is the voice of reasoning. He is what I would call a pragmatic politician who can differentiate the wood from the trees. Maybe Zaid did not say so in so many words but he could easily have summed up his piece by declaring that Umno is its own worst enemy. And I can say the same for the opposition as well. Anyway, Zaid has done some reflecting and soul-searching on what his party, the ruling party, is faced with. Let us do the same for the opposition.

Since Zaid wrote his piece on Merdeka Day of this year, much of what he prophesised have actually come true. And this all happened within the last month or so. The Malays have come out. The Indians have come out. It appears like the Chinese are yet to come out. But the Chinese have come out in ways that are not so apparent and they have been ‘coming out’ much earlier, long before the 10 November and 25 November rallies organised by BERSIH and HINDRAF respectively. Of course, as many would argue, the Chinese will not ‘take to the streets’ like their Malay and Indian comrades. The Chinese will not want to rock the boat. The Chinese will not want to jeopardise their business interests. And so on and so forth.

But as far back as when Abdullah Ahmad Badawi first took over as Prime Minister, the Chinese already voted. And their vote is a vote of no-confidence for the Abdullah government. Their vote, however, was not in the general election. It was not even on the streets like the Malays and Indians. The Chinese voted with their feet. And they did this by quietly moving their money out of Malaysia and by sending their children overseas to make a new life for themselves in another country that can offer them a better future and where skin colour does not determine whether you are Class 1, Class 2, or Class 3 citizens.

The government proudly announces FDI figures. The announcements are of course based on promises and not on actual cash injection. What the government does not announce is the outflow of capital. How many Ringgit leave the country for every Ringgit that comes in? This, the government will not reveal. The Umno Members of Parliament keep telling the Chinese if they do not like it here then they can leave Malaysia. Actually they are doing just that so these Umno MPs can stop shouting. Those leaving the country are not the Chinese fishermen from Telok Intan or Chinese farmers from Cameron Highlands. They are those with fat bank accounts and with money to burn. And this is hurting Malaysia’s economy big-time.

Whether you would like to admit it or not, the Malays dominate the political scene, the Chinese make the economy tick, while the Indians are regarded as neither here nor there. The ruling party is constantly worried about the ‘Malay swing’ or the ‘Chinese swing’. No one ever talks about the ‘Indian swing’ because not only are the Indians regarded as insignificant in numbers and probably only 10% of the seats command an ‘Indian majority’ -- and even then this so-called majority does not exceed 30% of the voters -- but the Indians traditionally have always voted for the ruling party and seldom will we see less than 90% of the Indian votes going to the ruling party.

However, whether they realise this or not, while the Indians can never create a dent in the political landscape, they can certainly play the role of kingmaker. Many seats are won with a mere 5% margin of votes. In fact, in seats that the opposition wins, they win with large margins, but in seats that the ruling party wins, they win with slim majorities. That is why the ruling party may garner only 60% of the votes but win more than 90% of the seats. In other words, the opposition can win half the votes but this does not mean it will win half the seats or that it will be able to deny the ruling party its two-thirds majority in Parliament.

The next general election will soon be upon us. But only about eight million Malaysians will cast their votes. In all likelihood, the ruling party will garner about five million votes while the opposition will bring home roughly three million votes. So the ruling party will obtain a majority of two million votes. This would mean that the ruling party will win roughly 60% of the votes or less than two-thirds but it would still be able to win more than two-thirds of the seats quite comfortably. Even on 11 May 1969 when the ruling party won only 45% of the votes it still managed to form the government, though without a two-thirds majority.

Dislodging the ruling party is an almost impossible task. Denying it its two-thirds majority is very difficult though not impossible. So that should be the focus of the opposition and the voters have to be told this. The voters should not be misled into believing that the game-plan is to form the next government. They should be told that the game-plan is to put as many opposition representatives as possible into Parliament and the State Assemblies so that Barisan Nasional’s arrogance can be clipped and some form of checks and balances can be introduced. Only when 60 opposition Members of Parliament and another 200 opposition State Assemblymen are sent into government as the ears, eyes and mouth of the voters will Barisan Nasional constantly look over its shoulder and think twice or thrice before it does something lest the voters get to hear about it and, again, take to the streets in protest.

Unfortunately, however, three million registered voters will not come out to vote. Another four million eligible voters will not register as voters. So, seven million Malaysians who can and should vote will not be voting. And three million will vote for the opposition while five million will vote for the ruling party. That is the sad reality of Malaysia’s elections. Only about 20% of Malaysians or one-third of eligible voters will vote for the ruling party. But this 20% or 33.3% is enough to give the ruling party a clear two-thirds majority in Parliament and the State Assemblies.

51% of Malaysians are women. 52% of registered voters are women. 53% of those who cast their votes are women. This is where the secret lies. Women are a force to be reckoned with. And women are not as corruptible as men. Men can be bought. With the right amount of money, men will swing on the morning of Polling Day. But women, once they have decided who to vote for, will remain steadfast and unwavering. Seldom can money make a woman change her mind. Yes, women are more loyal than men.

The opposition has to work hard on the women’s vote. To start off, since more than half the voters are women, why not half the candidates fielded also be women? The present ratio of women candidates is too low and not proportionate to their voter representation. Politics should not be a ‘men’s game’ while the role of women be merely to cook for their husbands. The hand that rocks the cradle can rock the world. Even during the time of Prophet Muhammad it is said that women fought alongside men in battles. If Prophet Muhammad can recognise the role of women and place women in the frontline of battlefields, is PAS more Islamic than Prophet Muhammad and place women in veils, hidden from public view, and playing the role of child-minder and cook?

Undoubtedly, PAS is the kingpin of the opposition. Without PAS the opposition will not get the numbers. So the opposition has no choice but to look at PAS as the taiko. And PAS, therefore, has to not only accept this role of taiko but perform it more meaningful as well.

PAS must understand, what is good for PAS may not be good for the opposition. So PAS has to come out with strategies that suit the opposition cause rather than its own party cause. For starters, PAS must agree to the launching of a Joint Election Manifesto. Let not this Joint Election Manifesto be drafted by ulamak and ustaz. Let it be drafted by experts and professionals from various fields such as law, economy, etc. If not, then all we will get is another academic religious paper fit only for the trashcan. And if PAS does not agree to this, then the opposition coalition might as well be put to sleep today and the voters be told now that each party will go its own way come the next election, three- or four-corner fights notwithstanding.

Read the proposed ‘sample’ of a JOINT ELECTION MANIFESTO here (http://www.malaysia-today.net/manifesto.htm). This is just an idea of what one should look like and which could probably be the basis of a new Joint Election Manifesto that will be signed by all the opposition parties in the opposition front. Thereafter, only this one election manifesto will be used and the individual parties will not come out with its own individual election manifestos which will confuse the voters as they would not know which one the various parties will eventually honour.

Five million people will vote for the ruling party. Three million people will not bother to vote. Four million people will not bother to register to vote. That comes to 12 million people. How will the opposition persuade part of this 12 million to vote for it thereby increasing the three million votes it is expected to garner come the next election? I don’t know. If I did then I would form my own political party and contest the next election. Okay, while I do not know how to make these 12 million people vote for the opposition, maybe I can throw some light onto why they will not.

Most people do not see any alternative to the present government. The opposition has not been able to convince the voters that it is a credible and viable alternative. Sure, the Islamic State issue is one issue that has frightened the voters, in particular the non-Muslims, though many Muslims too are opposed to the idea. Like it or not, PAS has to bite the bullet. It is painful, no doubt, but all good cures are painful, or at the very least bitter. Let us start from there. If PAS can’t even begin to consider this then its sincerity would be questioned. PAS must openly admit that Malaysians are not ready for an Islamic State and the issue will be dropped until such a time that Malaysians are ready, and even then if they ever will be ready. PAS must openly declare that in the event it wins two-thirds of the seats in Parliament it will hold a National Referendum to see whether Malaysians want an Islamic State and if 75% of Malaysians say yes then it will be done. If not, then no deal.

This will pacify the Islamists who will then not think that PAS has abandoned the Islamic cause. If not, then these Malays will just swing to Umno and abandoning the Islamic State will not make the opposition stronger but instead make PAS weak -- and we can’t afford a weak taiko. PAS then has to impress upon the voters that it will need two-thirds of the seats in Parliament to amend the Federal Constitution and turn Malaysia -- or even just one of the states -- into an Islamic State. PAS, however, is contesting only one-third the seats and even if it wins all the seats it contests it is still just one-third. Normally, however, PAS will win half the seats it contests so there is no possibility PAS can amend the Constitution and turn Malaysia into an Islamic State.

Next, the opposition has to present its Shadow Cabinet to the people. The voters want to know who will be the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, Finance Minister, etc., and this should also extend to agencies such as the heads of the ACA, SPR, Judiciary, and so on. Convince the voters that these are the qualified, experienced and worthy people who will be running this country in the event there is a change of government.

Sure, these people will be ‘exposed’ and may become the target of government persecution. But the voters do not want any surprises and if these people are too scared to face that risk then they are not worthy of representing us in government. 60,000 Malaysians took to the streets on 10 November. Another 40,000 tried but were prevented from doing so. 30,000 people took to the streets on 25 November. Another 20,000 tried but were prevented from doing so. All these people were prepared to face that risk. Many suffered injury and arrest for daring to take that risk. It is time those who want to lead us no longer hide but come forth to stand and be counted.

Yes, the above are but some of what needs to be addressed. Rest assured that more needs to be done. But let us start from there. And if we can’t even address these then there is no point in talking about the rest. Let the promise to the people be by way of an irrevocable Joint Election Manifesto. Promise the people that this and only this document will be the guiding light of the opposition, a united opposition, and that there are no other hidden documents which will be pulled out of a hat a la Houdini.

Will the people trust you? Will the people believe in your promises? Hey, you are the politicians and you are the ones who will be running this country if the people give you that mandate to do so. So it is your job to convince the people. But have faith in humankind. Normally, people can detect sincerity. And they can also detect if you are not sincere and are lying to them. And ask the people to give you just 60 voices in Parliament and 200 voices in the State Assemblies. And, who knows, if you prove this time around you are worthy of the job, the next time around they might give you 100 seats in Parliament and 350 seats in the State Assemblies. And by 2020 they might even put you in charge of running this country. But let us see how you address the more immediate issues first.