Back to the future: the fall of Saigon revisited

30 April 1975 was the day that Saigon fell. And it fell because the government did not have its fingers on the pulse of the nation. 30 April 2008 may be the day that Barisan Nasional -- and therefore Umno as well -- falls after getting a beating on 8 March 2008.


Raja Petra Kamarudin

Saigon finally fell on 30 April 1975 after a protracted war that saw countless lives lost. The fall of Saigon was not about superior firepower because that is exactly what the Vietcong did not possess. If anyone had superior firepower it was the vanquished, not the victor. But in a mere three days the superior Americans were sent packing back to Washington with their tails between their legs.

The fall of Saigon and eventually that of the entire Vietnam can be attributed to one fundamental problem. The government was in denial mode. They did not understand what the real problem was and they failed to recognise that the army no longer had any will to win. The war against communism can’t be won with guns alone. The people must also have the desire to reject communism. This was the secret of the British success in its war against the Communist Party of Malaya.

The British realised that the government cannot win the war against communism or communist terrorism. It has to be the people themselves who must want to reject communism. To achieve this, the British embarked on a campaign to win the hearts and minds of the people. It can’t be a war of guns or of superior firepower. It has to be a ‘war’ of winning over the support of the people.

This was what the British saw. But this was not what the Americans saw. So Malaya sustained while Vietnam fell. And the Malaysian government took the route of the Americans rather than that of the British in the recent general election. And the 8 March 2008 general election proved what a disastrous route this can be. Barisan Nasional thought it had superior firepower and it threw everything it had at the opposition. But where the opposition lacked in money and media control it more than made up for in strategy. And where the government failed, the opposition succeeded. And where the opposition lacked in ‘firepower’, it compensated for by winning the hearts and minds of the voters.

This morning, Umno organised a forum at the Singgahsana Hotel in Petaling Jaya to conduct a post-mortem on the recent general election. The purpose of the forum was to explore what went wrong and where Umno should go from here. But judging by the rhetoric and statements that came out of that forum today, it is clear that Umno still does not get it. They still do not have their fingers on the pulse. They still fail to understand what went wrong on 8 March 2008 and what needs to be done to restore the lost fortunes of the party that is the lead partner in the ruling coalition.

30 April 1975 was the day that Saigon fell. And it fell because the government did not have its fingers on the pulse of the nation. 30 April 2008 may be the day that Barisan Nasional -- and therefore Umno as well -- falls after getting a beating on 8 March 2008. The reasons are clear, though it may not be clear to Umno. But what is more of interest is not the reason for the 8 March 2008 ‘disaster’ but what is happening behind the scenes to cushion the fall of those who walk in the corridors of power.

Those who walk in the corridors of power no longer have any doubts that 30 April 2008 may be the day the newly-formed opposition coalition, Pakatan Rakyat, takes the reins of power. With its 82 seats in Parliament it is already more than halfway there. All it needs is another 30 seats to give it a simple majority in Parliament. If it gets more than that, even better, but 30 seats will do the trick for the meantime. Once the Barisan Nasional government falls, the stragglers will swing over easily enough because politicians always like to associate themselves with the winner, never with the loser.

Patrick Lim tried his best to salvage whatever little left he could salvage. As soon as the results of the election became known, his fortune started dwindling at a rapid pace. When the stock market opened the Monday following the elections, he saw more than a quarter billion Ringgit disappear from his books. It was the most painful Monday in his entire life -- as it was for the rest of the fourth floor cronies who were left holding paper that was no longer worth what it was just two days before that.

Seeing that Penang was now an opposition state, his flagship project, Penang Global City Centre, was doomed to become history; and the market reacted. When it was announced that approval for the project had never been given in the first place, that nailed his plans to change the entire landscape of Penang Island and turn into a New York skyline; and the market reacted even more. He had only Terengganu left, which thankfully was still a Barisan Nasional state. And if he could convince his bankers that Terengganu was still on, then maybe they will ease up on the margin calls.

But it was still too early to pop Champagne. Terengganu may be a Barisan Nasional state but it appears that His Majesty, The Agong, had other plans as to who should be the new Menteri Besar. The Agong knows about the RM1.2 billion a year oil royalty that has now been changed to wang ehsan and which comes under the direct supervision of the Prime Minister’s Department. The Agong also knows that ever since Idris Jusoh was appointed the manager of the wang ehsan in 2000, more than RM8 billion has disappeared into the pockets of Patrick Lim and his retinue of cronies. And The Agong said, enough is enough; the pilferage must come to an end!

Patrick Lim broke out into cold sweat when it was announced that The Agong has his own ideas on who should be the Menteri Besar of Terengganu and that it is not going to be Idris Jusoh. Patrick Lim sent The Agong a SMS with an offer of RM300 million if His Majesty would maintain status quo. The gall of this uncouth, uncultured, crossbreed of a Chinaman. Sending The Agong a SMS is bad enough. Not even The Agong’s uncle would do such a biadap thing. But to attempt to bribe The Agong on top of that is the height of insolence that tantamount to treason.

When The Agong did not respond, Patrick Lim made a beeline for Terengganu in an attempt to have a personal audience with His Majesty to pursue the RM300 million offer. The Agong made Patrick Lim sit in the waiting room the entire afternoon and at 5.00pm His Majesty sent his ‘guest’ off in tears with the message that he is persona non grata in the palace.

Patrick Lim was now desperate. He needed to save his Terengganu operation. With Penang now in shambles, Terengganu is all he has left with which to convince his bankers that he is still bankable. He went to meet Ahmad Said and offered the new Menteri Besar RM40 million if he would agree to turn down the offer for the top post and instead settle for the post of Deputy Menteri Besar. This would allow Idris Jusoh the top post, which would then enable Patrick Lim to retain Terengganu as his playground. But Ahmad Said refused the offer of RM40 million and Patrick Lim’s hope of getting his hands on the RM1.2 billion a year shattered.

Yes, 30 April 2008 may yet become like Saigon of 30 April 1975. Parliament is expected to convene on 28 April 2008 and if Anwar can convince another 30 Parliamentarians from Barisan Nasional to swing to his side then, with the 82 he already controls, he can form the new federal government. But can he do that?

Sabah and Sarawak have 54 Parliament seats, all Barisan Nasional, while only 14 are Umno. Without Sabah and Sarawak, Barisan Nasional will have only 86 Parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia, a majority of just four seats over the opposition’s 82. And without Sabah and Sarawak, Barisan Nasional cannot form the government, not even with a simple majority.

Sabah and Sarawak know that Barisan Nasional needs their seats. Yet, they gave Sabah and Sarawak just five Deputy Minister posts and ‘worthless’ ministries on top of that. Their 54 Parliament seats are not going to come cheap. They can decide to throw their seats behind the 86 Barisan Nasional seats or behind the 82 opposition seats. Whomsoever gets their 54 seats will form the government. And the one who will get their 54 seats will be the one who comes up with the best offer.

Sabah and Sarawak are each earning about RM600 million a year from the oil royalty. If the 5% oil royalty is increased to 20%, this will be close to RM2.5 billion a year, RM5 billion for both states combined. And if two Deputy Prime Minister posts are created and Second Deputy Prime Minister is rotated between Sabah and Sarawak, then that will complete the package. And the opposition has agreed to grant Sabah and Sarawak all this while Barisan Nasional, over the last two decades, will not even honour the Twenty-Point Agreement that was the basis for the formation of this nation called Malaysia.

Yes, 30 April 2008. Will that be the date of the fall of Barisan Nasional as was the fall of Saigon on 30 April 1975? Saigon fell because the government lost touch with the ground. If Barisan Nasional falls it will also be because the government has lost touch with the ground. Umno, today, in its forum at the Singgahsana Hotel, talked about Malay nationalism and Islam. Barisan Nasional got a thrashing on 8 March 2008 because the people are tired of all this talk about Malay nationalism and Islam. And this continued talk about Malay nationalism and Islam will be what will seal the Barisan Nasional coffin for good on 30 April 2008.

For further reading, on 28 March 2008, The Malaysian Insider ran an article called ‘Patrick Lim - jetsetter with a bulls-eye on his back’. Considering that The Malaysian Insider is owned by Kalimullah Masheerul Hassan and Brendon Pereira, it makes one wonder what their game plan is. After all, Kalimullah and Brendon are known fourth floor cronies. Is this a sign that even the fourth floor is jettisoning Patrick Lim and leaving him to flounder in his massive bank debts?

Of special interest is the New Straits Times report below about Maybank buying over Temasek’s interest in an Indonesian bank at RM3 billion more than what they should be paying. The interesting part, of course, is about who brokered this deal with Singapore and why Maybank was made to pay RM3 billion over-value.

Yes, the rats are deserting the sinking ship. And they are cashing out quickly so that they can take with them as much money as they can when they desert the ship. If the ship sinks on 30 April 2008, as may be the case….well, never mind, because by then billions will have been transferred out of the country.

Daim took RM42 billion with him when he bailed out just before Tun Dr Mahathir left the scene. Expect the present figure to be close to that when Abdullah Ahmad Badawi leaves the scene. RM21 billion has already been moved just before the last general election. They only need another RM21 billion to match Daim’s RM42 billion. And the Maybank deal just reduced that RM21 billion to RM18 billion so there is not that far to go. If the new government is formed on 30 April 2008 there may be nothing left in the kitty. I, for one, would not want to be in that new government.

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Patrick Lim - jetsetter with a bulls-eye on his back’
The Malaysian Insider, 28 March 2008

His jet set days seem a lifetime ago. The days of hopping onto a helicopter for a trip to Penang or a quick turnaround to Paris on his private jet. Or a power breakfast with Ferrari's Kimi Raikonnen. Or cocktails with Oracle's Larry Ellison at the America's Cup in Valencia. Those days must seem a long time ago for Datuk Patrick Lim Soo Kit.

Today, he must feel like a man with a bulls-eye on his back. The suave and well-turned out businessman has retreated to the background, hoping that the changing political structure will not leave him on the sidelines as it has many prominent Malaysian corporate figures over the year. Think of Tan Sri Khoo Kay Peng, Tan Sri Quek Leng Chan, Datuk Nazri Abdullah and others who paid for their close association with either Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah or Anwar Ibrahim.

What was once a powerful calling card is now a liability for the man christened Patrick Badawi by his enemies. And make no mistake now that Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's hold on power is tenuous, Patrick Lim's enemies are coming out in droves. Leading the charge is Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad. In his column in The Sun today, the former prime minister implies that the former Terengganu mentri besar Idris Jusoh and the first family may have benefited from various mega-projects. He does not name the conduit. He does not have to.

It was Dr Mahathir who publicly accused Lim and Khairy Jamaluddin of running Terengganu at the height of his public spat with Abdullah. By referring to him today, Mahathir is merely drawing on a reservoir of disdain, envy and anger against Patrick among Umno members. His critics say that Patrick dropped Abdullah's name at every turn, and that helped propel him into the big league and pages of society magazines. He hit the Malaysian corporate scene in the 1990s when - with the help of some financial backing from his wealthy father-in-law - his company started Equine Park, a housing development in Selangor.

As with many businessmen in Malaysia, he hitched his fortunes to the political master of the day. In the waning days of the Mahathir administration, he hung out with Datuk Mokhzani Mahathir, and they became thick friends. After Abdullah became the PM in October 2003, Lim started getting closer to Kamaluddin, Abdullah's only son. Within a short time, he made himself part of the inner circle, showing up when Abdullah and family members went on holidays. By now, there was speculation that he was a nominee for Kamaluddin. Within some government departments and states, there was little doubt that he had the ear of the PM, or at least he gave the impression he had.

He began to attract disdain and envy after he was selected by Abdullah to develop Pulau Duyong near Kuala Terengganu and organise the Monsoon Cup. In a short time, the Monsoon Cup has become a popular warm-up for teams planning an assault on the America's Cup. In the same time, rumblings started on the ground that Lim and Abdullah's family were the main beneficiaries of the major infrastructure projects in the state. This was one of the sticky points between Idris Jusoh and the royal household in the recent battle over the Mentri Besar's position. Lim was aware of the growing noise and attempted to hush it by pointing out of the many economic benefits which the Monsoon Cup brought to the state.

What he failed to realise was that the criticism had little to do with the race itself but was aimed at its promoter and benefactor in Putrajaya. Within Umno circles, they were peeved that a businessman, not one of their own, could wield so much influence and do it so openly.

If there was any doubt about Lim's close ties with Abdullah it was swept away when the Prime Minister launched the Penang Global City Centre last year. The project – an ambitious plan to turn a tiny neighborhood into a sprawling metropolis – was fast tracked as a high-impact project under the National Implementation Task Force and put under the Northern Corridor. Critics said that the project, to be developed on a 104-ha site now occupied by the Penang Turf Club, will create traffic jams, damage lush green areas and will be unsustainable. The new state government under Lim Guan Eng is not likely to approve the project unless it is scaled down.

Lim knows that his days of being in the frontline are over. He will be collateral damage even if Abdullah survives this choppy period. It is the price that businessmen in Malaysia pay for being associated with certain political leaders. Tan Sri Halim Saad of the Renong Group and Tan Sri Tajudin Ramli were the poster boys of the Mahathir era and paid for the excesses associated with that time.

Only a handful of corporate figures have been able to be close to different political masters. Among them is Berjaya's Vincent Tan. He has remained loyal to Dr Mahathir but managed to win the trust of Abdullah. But the publication of Dr Mahathir's long and piercing attack on Abdullah on the front page of a newspaper closely associated with Tan suggests that he is hedging his bets.

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Maybank wins bid for Indonesia's BII
By Adeline Paul Raj
New Straits Times, 27 March 2008

MALAYSIA'S biggest bank, Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank), has won a bid to take control of Bank Internasional Indonesia (BII) for US$1.5 billion (about RM4.8 billion), a major step for the lender to expand in the region. BII is Indonesia's sixth largest bank in terms of assets, with over 230 branches.

"This acquisition will transform our growth prospects in Indonesia and significantly enhance our regional presence," Maybank acting chief executive officer Datuk Aminuddin Md Desa told reporters at a briefing yesterday in Kuala Lumpur.

To comply with takeover rules, Maybank will also offer to buy the remaining 44 per cent of BII, which could push its total bill to US$2.7 billion (RM8.6 billion). It plans to fund this internally. The deal comes just days after it agreed to buy a 15 per cent stake in Vietnam's An Binh Bank for RM430 million.

Maybank's bid for BII, at 4.6 times book value, appears steep, an indication of the stiff fight from bigger rivals and limited opportunities in the region. Analysts said that it was probably the most expensive bank purchase ever in Indonesia. Research firms like Citigroup had expected it to pay US$1.8 billion (RM5.7 billion) for all of BII.

Aminuddin, however, believes it is worth paying the hefty premium to get a controlling stake in a crucial market like Indonesia. The country has no foreign shareholding limits and offers one of the highest growth potential in the region. "It's an opportunity we couldn't afford to miss," he said.

A Reuters report said Maybank had beaten Bank of China for BII, after Europe's biggest lender, HSBC, dropped out in the last leg of the race. According to Aminuddin, BII will start contributing profits in the third year after the deal is completed. Maybank's strategy is to tap the remittance business and, later, trade finance. With BII, revenue contribution from Maybank's international operations will jump to 30 per cent in the next one or two years from about 19 per cent currently, he said.

In the first stage of the BII deal, which could take three months to complete, Maybank will pay RM4.8 billion to buy all of Sorak Financial Holdings Pte Ltd, which holds 56 per cent of BII. Sorak is owned by Singapore investment arm Temasek (75 per cent) and South Korea's Kookmin Bank (25 per cent). Maybank will then make a RM3.8 billion offer to buy out BII's minority shareholders.

On whether Maybank intends to take BII private, Aminuddin said it was still too early to say as it would depend on how minority shareholders respond to the offer. He pointed out, however, that Indonesian law states that as long as there are at least 3,000 public shareholders, a company can be kept listed no matter what the public shareholding spread is. Maybank, whose shares traded at RM8.95 yesterday before being suspended for the announcement, expects to complete the entire deal in six months. Temasek is selling its stake in BII to comply with Indonesian laws that forbid a foreign investor from owning more than one bank.