Over to the fence sitters in Penang

Barisan Nasional and opposition parties have stepped up their electoral campaigns to win over fence sitters who could give the winners the edge.

Malaysians, Penangites in particular, will cast their ballots tomorrow to elect their representatives for the 12th general election.

Although Penangites have for the past 12 days witnessed some of the most fiery opposition rallies ever and the BN's supreme election machinery covering wide ground via door-to-door campaignng, many voters are believed to have yet made up their mind.

Penang last saw such intense election campaigning in 1990 and 1995 when so much is at stake for both the opposing forces.

For most Penangites, this electoral battle brings back memories of the 1990 and 1995 general elections.

In 1990, DAP won 14 seats, Umno won 12 seats, Gerakan seven while the MCA and the MIC were totally wiped out. In 1995, with the euphoria of the collapse of the BN in the state, Penangites voted the opposite. The DAP was left with on one state seat.

For the BN which won 38 of the 40 state seats and eight of the 13 parliamentary seats in 2004, this general election has been a daunting and challenging one especially with the wave of anti-establishment sentiments fanning stronger amongst the Chinese and Indians.

This was even acknowledged by outgoing Penang chief minister Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Koon who lamented that there was eagerness among the non-Malay voters to punish and teach the BN a lesson.

Unlike previous elections, this time, Penangites are much more quiet, which is dangerous for the BN as the electorates seem to have already made up their minds, even long before parliament was dissolved.

For the Chinese who form 46% of the electorates, the utterances, especially by several Umno leaders over the past few years, has not been forgotten.

As for the Indians who form 9% of the population, the government's clampdown on the Hindu Rights Action Force (Hindraf), including the detention of five Hindraf leaders under the Internal Security Act (ISA), is still fresh on their minds.

The Malays are also, to a certain extent, irritated by the rising cost of living, caused by rising global crude oil prices.

Realising these strong anti-establishment sentiments, the opposition parties namely DAP, Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) and PAS are going all out to woo voters in Penang.

The Opposition is expected to inflict a dent in Penang BN, especially Gerakan, MCA and MIC. How extensive is anyone's guess.

In the past 12 days, BN top guns, spearheaded by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, have been campaigning effortlessly in Penang.

Unlike 2004, when Abdullah focused on his nationwide campaign more, this time, almost daily throughout the campaigning period, Abdullah has been in Penang.

Other big guns who have been making frequent trips to Penang include deputy prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak, Umno Youth chief Datuk Seri Hishamuddin Hussein, Umno Wanita Chief Datuk Seri Rafidah Aziz, MCA president Datuk Seri Ong Ka Ting and his deputy Datuk Seri Chan Kong Choy and also MIC president Datuk Seri S. Samy Vellu.

For Umno which is contesting 15 state and five parliamentary seats, the focus has been on wooing voters in Permatang Pauh, where incumbent MP and PKR president Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail is backed by her husband Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahm.

Umno and PKR are fighting tooth and nail for the seat which was formerly held by Anwar when he was in Umno since 1982. Wan Azizah retained the seat in 1999 and 2004.

In 2004, Wan Azizah came close to losing the seat, winning it by a mere 590 majority compared with 1999 when, riding on the wave of sympathy after Anwar's sacking, she garnered a 9,077 majority.

Besides losing Permatang Pauh, Umno also failed to wrest the Permatang Pasir state seat from PAS in 2004 but managed to wrest Penanti from PKR.

Umno is bent on beating PKR in Permatang Pauh which is regarded as PKR's symbolic political power base.

Abdullah stayed away from campaigning in the PKR heartland in 2004, leaving the task to other Umno big guns. This time around, realising the intensity of the PKR resistance, Abdullah made a last ditch attempt to give the Umno campaign in Permatang Pauh a big push last night.

Umno leaders say their party's chance to topple PKR in Permatang Pauh is still 50:50 and touch and go for Umno in Permatang Pasir.

Umno's campaign in Batu Maung are reported to be facing some "internal problems". Umno's electoral debutante Norman Zahalan faces PKR's Abdul Malek Abul Kassim.

Umno won Batu Maung with a 6,088 majority in 2004, but this time, the change in candidate has caused ill-feelings among the supporters of the former state assemblyman Mansor Musa.

Leading the Gerakan charge in Penang is outgoing Chief Minister Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Kon who became the "commander-in-chief" of the state after Tun Dr Lim Chong Eu was defeated in Padang Kota by DAP veteran Lim Kit Siang in 1990.

Gerakan is contesting 13 state and four parliamentary seats.

Koh has been breakground in the Batu Kawan parliamentary constituency after moving from his Tanjung Bungah state seat.

In 2004, Gerakan's Huan Cheng Guan did not win Batu Kawan easily. Huan polled 17,097 votes for a 8,998 majority win in a three-corner fight with the DAP and PKR.

However, the combined votes polled by DAP and PKR was 14,651, slicing the support for Gerakan and Opposition to only 2,446 votes. Indians make up 22.91% of the more than 43,055 electorates.

However, Koh is expected to win as he is seen having the edge over DAP's Professor P.Ramasamy as the Chinese voters are expected to give him a "face saving" win since Koh is the acting president of Gerakan and it would be disastrous for the party, and himself, if he loses.

Koh is banking on the 56.18% Chinese voters and 20.52% Malays to give him victory.

Though Gerakan won all 13 state seats in 2004, but failed to wrest Tanjung from the DAP, this time around, Gerakan may lose a few seats.

The state seats which are touch and go for Gerakan are Batu Lanchang, Kebun Bunga and Bukit Tambun while the Jelutong parliamentary seat contested by blogger Jeff Ooi on a DAP ticket is also dicey while there are also problems for Gerakan in Bukit Bendera where Gerakan secretary-general Datuk Seri Chia Kwang Chye faces DAP's Liew Chin Tong.

The three candidates identified by Koh as his possible succesor - Datuk Lee Kah Choon (Machang Bubuk), Teng Chang Yeow (Padang Kota) and Datuk Dr Teng Hock Nan (Pulau Tikus) - are not expected to face much problems retaining their seats.

The biggest casualty in this election are expected to be MCA which is contesting 10 state and four parliamentary seats.

MCA only managed to win one parliamentary seat (Bayan Baru) and nine state seats, losing the Sungai Puyu state seat to the DAP in 2004 but this time will face the "wrath" of the Chinese voters as a result of the prevailing sentiments.

Spearheaded by DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng, the MCA is unlikely to wrest Bagan and Bukit Mertajam from the DAP but just might take the Bukit Gelugor seat from the DAP, which was won by Karpal Singh with a 1,261 majority in 2004.

The MCA is facing an uphill battle against the DAP to regain Sungai Puyu and may even concede Bagan Jermal and Air Putih while it is also facing problems in Komtar, Pengkalan Kota and Padang Lalang where the odds are still 50:50.

The MIC has two state seats at stake - Perai and Bagan Dalam. Both areas have a high percentage of Indians and the MIC is fighting an uphill battle to win the hearts of its community.

As the saying goes, nothing is certain in politics, and tomorrow, the people will decide. - THE SUN