Two's company, three's a crowd

Posted By: Raja Petra

The opposition has a very good chance of winning a good number of seats. The opposition also has a very good chance of denying Barisan Nasional its two-thirds majority in Parliament. Furthermore, the opposition has a very good chance of forming the Kelantan, Terengganu, Penang and Sabah state governments. And if the opposition fails to do all this it is not because Barisan Nasional is strong but because the opposition is shooting itself in its own foot.


Umno says it is not Malay culture to use blogs and internet websites to whack the government. Umno further says blogs and internet websites are irrelevant and insignificant because Malaysians go to the internet only to buy cheap airline tickets and for entertainment purposes. Granted, the internet is not going to swing the elections. Other factors will. But the internet can play a role in more ways than one which those who walk in the corridors of power do not seem to appreciate.

Let us not speculate. Let us instead look at the track record and real statistics in arriving at our assumptions. Only then can our assumptions be regarded as credible and believable. And using your own children as the example and then saying that this is reflective of what the other 26 million Malaysians do and think, like what our Minister of Information did, does not hold water. After all, your children are products of your sperm cells, at least we would like to believe that. So, if you are a nut, chances are your children will equally be nuts.

Ten years ago, in 1998, there were only 280,000 internet subscribers opposed to about eight million registered voters. Even then the internet did have some impact on the election results and the more than 100 Reformasi websites managed to disseminate 'alternative' information far and wide. The 1999 general election saw the ruling coalition get a beating that resulted in Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad handing over the government to his successor, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

Mahathir knew that the next election in 2004 would be even worse so he did what the opposition prayed he would not do -- he resigned and allowed Abdullah to lead Barisan Nasional in the 2004 election. Mahathir played his cards well. He handed over just a few months before the elections so that Abdullah would have the advantage of the 'honeymoon' period. If he handed over too early and there was a too large a gap between Abdullah taking over and the elections being called, then the 'honeymoon' effect would wear off.

So the 2004 general election should not be the yardstick. Those were abnormal conditions. People were overjoyed that Mahathir had left and even if a donkey took over the people would support it, as long as it was not Mahathir -- and Abdullah is certainly slightly better than a donkey. So the people gave this slightly better than a donkey a landslide win and 92% of the seats in Parliament.

The 8 March 2008 general election must therefore be compared to the 1999 general election, not the 2004 general election. What prevailed back in 1998-1999 prevails today. Both situations are the same.

Over the last ten years, the eight million voter population has increased to almost 11 million. And more than half of them are youths, which can be translated to internet users. In terms of internet subscribers, the mere 280,000 has increased to about 15 million according to international statistics. (Internet World Stats). Some say it is not that high and maybe only about half that. Nevertheless, whether it is really 15 million or just 7.5 million, it is still a large increase from just 280,000 ten years ago considering the voting population increased a mere 35% or so.

What should be of concern is not how many people go to blogs and internet websites to read what is published but how people are aware of the information that goes onto the internet. Articles, commentaries, analysis and news items are forwarded via e-mail to mass recipients, they are printed out and photocopied and distributed to those who do not have access to the internet, in particular in the rural areas, and they are translated into Malay and Chinese for those not too proficient with English.

This is almost like a direct-selling operation. As it goes down-line, the network of agents and distributors gets larger and larger. One 'unit manager' could be controlling a network of 10,000 agents and distributors five or six levels down. And that is how the unit manager makes money, not by personally selling anything because he or she would be too busy by then to do any personal sales, but by controlling the down-liners so that they do all the selling for you.

The late MGG Pillai was surprised to discover that when he went to the rural villages (kampong) they knew who he was. He then found out that they knew him because they had read everything he had written. But these people who knew him and had read what he had written do not own a computer or have internet access. They do not even speak, read or write in English. They had read the Malay translation of his pieces in 'hard copy'. Certain people were translating all his English pieces from the internet into Malay and had photocopied them and distributed them to the Malay-speaking people in the villages.

And that was almost ten year ago and MGG Pillai left us a couple of years back.

As a rule of thumb, I normally work on the 35:35:30 ratio. 35% of the voters support the government and there is nothing you can do or say to change their minds into voting for the opposition. 35% of the voters support the opposition and there is nothing you can do or say to change their minds into voting for the government. The balance 30% are atas pagar or fence-sitters, the undecided.

Based on the statistics of the last 11 general elections, about 75% of the registered voters come out to vote. This means about eight million Malaysians will be voting this coming election. Three million people will just stay home and will not bother to come out to vote.

Out of this eight million, about 5.5 million have made up their minds who to vote for, split almost equally between the ruling party and the opposition. Therefore, 2.5 million Malaysian are still undecided who they want to vote for. And if you add this 2.5 million to the three million voters who will not come out to vote, this means there are 5.5 million 'virgin' voters who have not yet committed themselves to any political party.

Look at the figures again. 5.5 million have already decided who to vote for, and it is about half-half for the government-opposition. 5.5 million have not yet decided who to vote for or whether to even bother coming out to vote.

Forget about the first lot of 5.5 million. They are already 'taken'. Concentrate on the second lot of 5.5 million. They may not even come out to vote or, if they do, they can still be swayed to vote either for the ruling party or the opposition even on Polling Day itself. And many within this second lot of 5.5 million do have computers and internet access and do go to blogs and internet websites to read the 'alternative' news. And many of those within this second lot of 5.5 million have never voted before, did not even bother to register to vote until quite recently, will be coming out to vote for the first time, and will definitely vote opposition. If not they would not bother to vote or to register as a voter.

And these people are not kids. Some are in their forties and fifties. Many are professionals and are in the upper-middle class group. This should have been their fifth or sixth election, not their first. But they never bothered to vote or even to register as a voter until quite recently because they have no wish to vote for a government they despise and they do not see any alternatives who they can vote for. So they do not vote or register to vote merely because they do not like what they see on both sides of the political divide.

But that has now changed. They still do not like the government. But they now feel that it was a gross mistake giving Barisan Nasional 92% of the seats in Parliament the last time around. Barisan Nasional has grown arrogant. Success has gone to its head. Barisan Nasional needs to be cut down to size. Granted, Barisan Nasional will still form the government, maybe even still with a two-thirds majority. But at least send as many opposition candidates as possible to Parliament. And, if in the process Barisan Nasional's two-thirds majority can be taken away, then well and good. That would be the bonus.

So, no, blogs and internet websites can't touch the first lot of 5.5 million 'committed' voters. But, yes, it can influence the second lot of 5.5 million undecided voters and those who normally will not come out to vote. And if the opposition can win over two million of them, leaving one million for Barisan Nasional while the 2.5 million still stay home and do not come out to vote, Barisan Nasional will still be ruling this country but without its two-thirds majority in Parliament and minus a few states like Kelantan, Terengganu, Penang and Sabah which will see opposition governments.

But the extra two million voters will not come cheap. It will come with a price. The three main opposition parties -- PAS, DAP and PKR -- have all announced that they are launching their individual election manifestos. This is a major disappointment. We had hoped that the opposition parties would not launch their own individual election manifestos but instead adopt the Peoples' Declaration or Deklarasi Rakyat as their manifesto. At least this would demonstrate to the voters that the opposition is united. But, alas, this is not going to be so.

Nevertheless, the Peoples' Declaration will be officially launched at 11.00am on Saturday, 23 February 2008, at the Blog House (No: 66, Lorong Setiabistari 2, Bukit Damansara, 50490, Kuala Lumpur). All the political parties that have endorsed the Peoples' Declaration -- PAS, DAP, PKR, MDP, PSM and Pasok -- will be invited for the launch, as will representatives from various civil societies and the internet-blogging community. In fact, all members of the public who feel strongly about this matter are also invited.

Equally important is; there must not be any three-corner fights. The last two elections saw quite a few three-corner fights in spite of the existence of an opposition coalition called Barisan Alternatif and the electoral pact that was agreed upon. Threesomes are great when it comes to sex but in an election it will be disastrous.

In some seats, the votes the two opposition candidates garnered were more than what the solitary Barisan Nasional candidate got. This means, if it had a been a straight fight, the opposition would have won that seat instead of Barisan Nasional. In other seats, because of the three-corner fight, the opposition candidate lost his deposit. One hapless opposition candidate in Kampong Medan actually borrowed money from an Ah Long (loan shark) thinking he would be able to refund the money after the election. The poor fellow disappeared after that and I am not sure whether he had gone underground to escape the Ah Long or the Ah Long finally caught up with him and dumped his body into a mining pool.

It is not like these three-corner fights were because of renegade members who went into the fray against their parties wishes. They had Surat Watikah from their parties. This means their parties endorsed the three-corner fight. And when a complaint is raised with the parties concerned, they just offer excuses like it was a mistake (tersilap), but no action was taken against those concerned.

This time around we must punish those parties that perpetuate three-corner fights. If your voting constituency is subjected to a three-corner fight then we must vote for the Barisan Nasional candidate. Let both the opposition candidates lose their deposits. It must be a straight fight or nothing at all. The people must send this very strong message to the opposition parties.

DAP, PAS, PKR, MDP, PSM, PRM are all guilty of this. This is because there are many egos at play here. Everyone thinks that they are terra. Azmin Ali of PKR and Hassan Ali of PAS are quarrelling as to who is going to be the new Menteri Besar of Selangor. Aiyoh. Boleh menang ke tidak? You are not even sure you can deny Barisan Nasional its two-thirds majority in the Selangor State Assembly. Try that first if you can. Taking over the state and forming the next government and throwing tantrums because you want to the next Menteri Besar is pure bullshit. Nak cerita pun malu!

Last election, DAP and PAS engaged in a three-corner fight in Puchong. This election, Karpal Singh's son will be contesting that seat and PAS has graciously agreed to withdraw to allow DAP to have that seat -- and he has a better than average chance of winning the Puchong seat. But just as we thought the Puchong matter is already settled, PKR jumps in and says it wants that seat. Aiyah! Apa ni? PKR does not even have a candidate yet. They just want that seat and if they get it they will be frantically looking around for someone to field in Puchong. Why not DAP, PAS and PKR all contest in Puchong and we make it a four-corner fight instead? Semua kepala tak betul.

Thus far I have only touched on the inter-party quarrels. If I start talking about the intra-party quarrels like what we have seen in Batu Gajah, Penang, Sarawak, and many more places, you would probably decide to just stay home and not bother to come out to vote. We settle the problems between parties and problems within parties raise its ugly head.

Anyway, I do not want to depress you more than necessary. These are just some of the seat-tussle problems plaguing the opposition. The point I would like to make is if there are any three-corner fights we must punish BOTH opposition candidates by voting for Barisan Nasional in that particular constituency. This is the era of Peoples' Power. The people must decide, not the political parties. We accept the opposition, but on our terms, not theirs. If they turn their backs on us then we must turn our backs on them as well.

The opposition has a very good chance of winning a good number of seats. The opposition also has a very good chance of denying Barisan Nasional its two-thirds majority in Parliament. Furthermore, the opposition has a very good chance of forming the Kelantan, Terengganu, Penang and Sabah state governments. And if the opposition fails to do all this it is not because Barisan Nasional is strong but because the opposition is shooting itself in its own foot.